Conference of the International Luxembourg Forum “Safe Tolerance Criteria for Nuclear Non-proliferation Regimes”

The Luxembourg Forum Conference on Major Issues of International Nuclear Security Opens in Montreux

Yesterday, on May 21, 2013, a two-day conference billed as Secure Tolerance Criteria for Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regimes organized by the International Luxembourg Forum on Preventing Nuclear Catastrophe, opened in Montreux, Switzerland. The world’s leading experts on nuclear disarmament and nuclear non-proliferation from the Luxembourg Forum and other international organizations attended the Conference are discussed critical issues of international security. The Conference is held jointly with the Geneva Centre for Security Policy.

The Conference was attended by renowned scientists and experts on nuclear security: President of the Luxembourg Forum Viatcheslav Kantor; Director of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy Fred Tanner; University of Maryland Professor, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) Roald Sagdeev; Chairman of the Governing Board, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Rolf Ekeus; Head of the Centre for International Security of the Institute for World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), RAS Academician Alexei Arbatov; Chairman of the Organizing Committee, International Luxembourg Forum, IMEMO RAS Principal Researcher Vladimir Dvorkin; General of the Army, former Commander-in-Chief of the Strategic Rocket Forces Vladimir Yakovlev; Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Ariel Levite; Director of the Non-Proliferation of the Mass Destruction Weapons and Disarmament Programme at the International Institute for Strategic Studies Mark Fitzpatrick; Director of the Center for Arms Control, Energy and Environmental Studies of the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology Anatoliy Diakov; Counsellor to the Nuclear Threat Initiative John Carlson; Head of the Euro-Atlantic Security Programme, Director of the European Training Course in Security Policy, Geneva Centre for Security Policy Gustav Lindstrom; Director of the Institute for Strategic Assessments Sergey Oznobishchev; President of Global Nuclear Solutions Tariq Rauf; Deputy Secretary-General of the Conference on Disarmament and Director, United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs, Geneva Branch, Jarmo Sareva; Senior Programme Advisor, Emerging Security Challenges Programme, Course Director, New Issues in Security Course, Geneva Centre for Security Policy, Marc Finaud; Associate Fellow of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy David Atwood, and other international experts.

The agenda included technical aspects of creating nuclear weapons, nuclear munitions and their delivery vehicles, the development and deployment of nuclear forces, and scientific, technical and industrial potential as a precondition for the development of nuclear weapons.

Unlike previous events, this year’s Forum Conference focus marked the initial stage of research aimed at identifying those conditions and features that prove that a state’s nuclear technologies are approaching the so-called “red line” which, when crossed, strongly suggests their intention to develop nuclear weapons. Urgent solutions and appropriate measures are required to prevent such developments.

Based on the Conference outcome, the experts intend to aggressively continue their research to provide grounds for acceptable limits of “nuclear tolerance,” the point at which non-nuclear states that have the right to create a complete nuclear fuel cycle for the benefit of the nuclear power industry under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, but start to show signs of abusing this right in order to illegally develop weapon technologies.

The Forum’s experts are confident that suppression of such activity must be implemented in tougher resolutions than the existing resolutions of the UN Security Council, which, as experience shows, may be inefficient, specifically as concerns prohibitions against Iran’s enrichment of uranium. The token nature of such prohibitions is demonstrated by the position of the Six Nations held in negotiations with Iran, which allows for compromise agreements limiting nuclear enrichment to a mere 20% and allowing enrichment to fuel grade. This essentially undermines the authority of the UN Security Council. In these circumstances, the Forum experts strive to elaborate clear criteria for nuclear tolerance.

In his opening address to the Conference the Luxembourg Forum President Viatcheslav Kantor emphasized that “the theme of tolerance is widely used in public practice, despite the fact that it does not meet the challenges of the 21^st century. That is why we need to enhance the idea of tolerance with the concept of security. The ‘limit of tolerance,’ defining of the conditions in which tolerance becomes dangerous for society, is an innovative feature of the concept of secure tolerance. Crossing this limit requires strict and legitimate measures to restore secure and civilized compromise. The initial application of this approach may prevent nuclear technologies from progressing to the military level.”

“I am confident that we will finally perform the assigned research tasks,” Kantor assured. “Our experts will continue to analyze current issues of enhancing nuclear non-proliferation regimes, which issues do not diminish. Over recent years, progress in further reduction of strategic and non-strategic nuclear weapons has been hampered by lack of acceptable compromise regarding European and global ballistic missile defence. We have repeatedly analyzed these issues in detail and provided our recommendations, and we will continue to do so.”

Based on the event outcome, its participants will draft the traditional final document with their recommendations and specific proposals. The Luxembourg Forum experts issue similar documents on a regular basis after every event and valued by the global political leaders and heads of major international organizations who receive them.

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The International Luxembourg Forum on Preventing Nuclear Catastrophe was established pursuant to a decision of the International Conference on Preventing Nuclear Catastrophe, held in Luxembourg on May 24-25, 2007. The Forum’s Advisory Council includes 57 most reputable and world-renowned experts from 14 countries.

The Forum is one of the most representative non-governmental organizations uniting leading world experts on non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, arms reduction and limitation. The Forum is headed by its President, Viatcheslav Kantor, PhD. The principal guiding bodies of the Forum are the International Advisory Council (IAC) and the Supervisory Council (SC).

The Forum’s priorities are to analyze threats imposed by nuclear arms proliferation and elaborate practical proposals and recommendations on the ways to further reduce nuclear arms, strengthen nuclear and missile non-proliferation regime, counteract acquisition of nuclear weapons and technologies by unstable regimes and terroristic organizations, and resolve the Iranian and North Korean nuclear crises. Reducing nuclear threats is closely connected to conventional arms balance, development of precision weapons and prospects for cooperation between states on ballistic missile defence.

Final Document ofthe Conference of the International Luxembourg Forum on “Safe Tolerance Criteria for the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime”

May 21-22, 2013, Montreux, Switzerland

The members of the International Advisory Council of the International Luxembourg Forum express their gratitude to the Geneva Center for Security Policy for its cooperation in holding a session on “Safe Tolerance Criteria for the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime”.

The members of the International Advisory Council of the International Luxembourg Forum express their concern over the present state of the nuclear non-proliferation regime. They believe that the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons continues to be the cornerstone of prevention of further proliferation of nuclear weapons and furtherance of nuclear disarmament which are fundamental elements of international security at global and regional levels.

Nonetheless the non-proliferation regime is in need of enhancement and refinement. Equally important is building consensus among the great powers and other responsible states on such steps and their priority for ensuring the efficacy of the non-proliferation regime and its norms and institutions.

The need for such measures is demonstrated by the prolonged crises over the nuclear programs of North Korea and Iran, as well as a number of other violations and deviations from NPT norms and procedures by other states.

The participants of the Conference of the International Luxembourg Forum paid special attention to the following technical, operational, strategic, economic and political aspects and tipping points of nuclear weapons development. These issues should be the focus of monitoring and, if necessary, of actions by the international community in order to enhance the non-proliferation regime:

1. Foremost the technical aspects of nuclear weapons, their delivery systems and nuclear force deployments of various scales were analyzed.

2. Special attention was given to the scientific, technical and industrial potential of states relevant to nuclear weapons development.

3. Besides analyzing the experience of the five nuclear-weapons states, the participants of the conference gave thorough consideration to the specifics of nuclear weapons development in the regions of North-East Asia, the Middle East and South Asia.

4. The International Luxembourg Forum experts started the process of defining criteria for non-declared weapons development that could be used by the IAEA and the UN Security Council to make a judgment about the nature and goals of the nuclear programs of NPT parties. Such criteria may serve for initiation of appropriate actions by the IAEA and the UN Security Council in order to prevent violations or break out of parties from the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

5. The participants proposed the establishment of an International Expert Center as a subsidiary organ of the UN Security Council under the auspices of the IAEA with the task of analyzing and monitoring possible development of nuclear explosive devices and their delivery means by non-nuclear-weapon states. This Center would receive relevant information from the national technical means of states and from other sources.

6. Conference participants decided to create a Working Group for the elaboration of criteria and to propose a general structure of academic, public and official organizations which would be assigned the task of producing policy guidance and instruments to prevent misuse of nuclear energy in order to promote safe nuclear tolerance.

Elaboration of such assessment methods and criteria should define the limits of safe tolerance within the nuclear non-proliferation regime. Participants agreed that continuation of this analytical effort would be essential for presenting concrete proposals to the IAEA and the UN Security Council.

The context of this endeavor is to create an environment that facilitates the peaceful development of nuclear energy while minimizing the risks of its potential misuse and to conduct work beneficial to peaceful uses of nuclear energy, disarmament and non-proliferation.