Final Declaration of the Supervisory Board meeting of the International Luxembourg Forum. Geneva, December 4-5, 2019

2020: THE CRUCIAL YEAR FOR THE FUTURE OF ARMS CONTROL

Declarationof the Supervisory Board of the International Luxembourg Forum on Preventing Nuclear Catastrophe

Geneva, December 5, 2019

The Supervisory Board of the International Luxembourg Forum cooperates with the Arms Control Association, the Atlantic Council, the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, Global Zero, the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs, the RAND Corporation, the Russian International Affairs Council and Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

Understanding that 2020 will be decisive for the nuclear arms control system and consequently for strategic stability, recognizing the efforts of the above mentioned organizations to prevent nuclear catastrophe and having deliberated as a conference on June 4-5 in Rome and as a Supervisory Board on December 4-5 in Geneva, we propose the following Road Map for these most urgent actions:

• 2020 will be the last chance to extend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) before its expiration in February 2021. We strongly urge the extension of the Treaty and steps toward negotiations of a follow-on agreement.
• With the necessary political will, it is entirely possible to resolve the technical issues and establish a legal definitions essential to the preservation of New START. This Treaty remains crucial if Russia and the United States are to sustain bilateral strategic stability, parity, transparency and predictability. Moreover, its preservation creates the possibility for negotiations on a follow-on agreement to reduce and limit all relevant weapons systems, in order to continue the process of nuclear arms control and the regime of the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons.
• In the present tense political environment, in view of the danger of inadvertent nuclear war due to technical error or political miscalculation, it is all the more necessary to take joint steps to increase time for the decision-making process on the use of nuclear weapons.
• 2020 will mark the 50^th anniversary of the entry into force of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and the 25^th anniversary of its indefinite extension. At this historical moment for the NPT, it is vital for the United States and the Russian Federation to continue their traditional cooperation on non-proliferation. Among the major challenges to be addressed at the 2020 NPT Renew Conference is the future of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). All states parties to the Treaty should be encouraged to take all necessary measures to preserve the principal elements of the JCPOA.
• The collapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty is likely to precipitate a new arms race in medium- and short-range nuclear and conventional missiles in Europe, Asia and other regions of the world. Positive measures taken in 2020 could preserve the objectives of that Treaty and open the way to additional verification measures, consistent with the appeal of the Russian Government of October 2019 to declare a moratorium on deployment of mid-range missiles. European states should actively support such a moratorium.
• Dangerous confrontation and close encounters of Russian and NATO armed forces in the Black Sea, Baltic and Arctic regions and in Syria have been going on for several years and they can erupt into armed conflict at any moment. The year 2020 may present the opportunity to avoid this threat by applying steps of military de-escalation on both sides and to preserve the Open Skies Treaty and the Vienna Document. As one of the steps towards reduction of tensions we urge the parties to refrain from large-scale military maneuvers and build-up of armaments and military forces near the border areas.
• Consistent with the above recommendations, it would be highly desirable for all states, and especially for nuclear weapons possessors, to endorse the principle that “nuclear war cannot be won and should never be fought.”

This would be in line with past proposals of the Luxembourg Forum, to conduct regular summits at senior state level and military-to-military contacts. These urgent steps are essential for resuming progress towards the long-term goal of achieving the nuclear weapons free world.

The participants of the Supervisory Board Meeting of the International Luxemburg Forum: